Sanaa, Yemen (IRIN) – After a year of mass demonstrations and street battles which brought the country to the brink of civil war, Yemen is preparing for presidential elections on 21 February; the sole candidate, Vice-President Abdu Rabo Mansour Hadi, kicked off his campaign yesterday.

While some observers argue that the election is a mere change of guard, others suggest it is the only way to save Yemen from collapse – ending President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s 33-year rule in accordance with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-brokered agreement signed in November 2011.

The GCC deal aimed to end a year of fighting that led to a deepening humanitarian crisis. But the election is being held under difficult circumstances.

Violence remains widespread across the country and the election is being opposed by Islamist militants, some elements within the Southern Movement, and the Houthis, who were left out of the November deal.

According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), data compiled by the government’s executive unit for internally displaced persons (IDPs) shows that-4,000 people have been displaced in southern and central Yemen since May 2011, and over 80,000 in Abyan Governorate alone.

In Kisher District in the northern governorate of Hajjah hundreds of people have been displaced by recent clashes between Houthis and Salafists. Hajjah is also where tens of thousands of IDPs have been displaced since 2004 by conflict between government and Houthi forces. Over 300,000 remain displaced in Sa’dah Governorate.

Saleh, now undergoing medical treatment in the USA, remains influential within the army, where his son commands an elite brigade; in the economy, where his relatives and cronies hold sway; and in politics where he remains head of the ruling General People’s Congress (GPC).

Hadi, who has been vice-president since 1994 and is GPC deputy chairman, is considered to be more open to dialogue with the opposition, including influential figures such as Gen Ali Mohsen (an erstwhile Saleh supporter) and Hamid al-Ahmar (a wealthy Sheikh from the opposition Islah Party). In view of the support he has among opposition groups he is viewed as the “consensus” candidate, who will guide the country through a two-year transitional period, in an attempt to resolve issues in the contested South and North, reunite the army and security forces, and prepare the country for competitive elections.

After approving Hadi’s nomination, parliament suspended its proceedings until after the election, essentially rejecting all other nominations, with the view that a competitive election at such a tense time could spark violence. The intention of the coming elections is to transfer power smoothly from Saleh, avoid violence and restore peace and services in Yemen. But many obstacles remain.

IRIN looks at some of the other key players and groups who could influence the polls.

Al-Musaibly

Ahmad al-Musaibly, a TV announcer supported mainly by youthful protesters, had tried to contest the presidency, but parliament did not accept his credentials.

Al-Musaibly has no party affiliation, and says he is an “independent revolutionary”. He used to work for Yemen’s main state-run TV, but resigned from his job in March to join the anti-Saleh protest movement.

“We need an independent president for the transitional period who believes in the legitimacy of the Youth Revolution against the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh,” the Organizing Committee of the Youth Revolution (OCYR), which supports his candidature, said in a statement on 15 January.

“There are millions of independent Yemeni citizens whom we expect will support this independent presidential candidate,” OCYR media coordinator Zaki Sallam told IRIN. “We expect the international community, which rejects the granting of immunity to killers, to support our candidate.”

His supporters, who had already started printing campaign materials, are likely to be frustrated by his inability to run and could cause trouble.

GPC

Despite some defections since political unrest began in February 2011, the GPC still has nearly 200 members in the 301-seat parliament, and holds half the posts in the 34-member interim cabinet.

In power for 10 years, and with a nationwide membership going back to when it was founded in the 1980s, party members head many institutions at governorate and district levels. The GPC will no doubt exploit the electoral advantages of incumbency.

Tensions within its leadership have, however, become evident lately. On 10 January, Hadi threatened not to run for president after GPC members accused him of defying Saleh’s authority, with some calling him a traitor.

The issue of immunity from prosecution for Saleh and his closest associates is likely to cause further problems for the GPC: Observers believe the GPC could have difficulty explaining the amnesty to a disgruntled electorate.

The cabinet recently approved a draft law granting amnesty to Saleh, but the decision has sparked widespread anger especially among young Yemenis, and criticism from human rights watchdogs. Yet party stalwarts seem determined: “No election may take place unless the capital Sana’a is cleared of gunmen and a draft law granting immunity to Saleh and his aides is approved,” said Sultan al-Barakani, head of the party’s parliamentary bloc.

JMP

Established in 2003, and active nationwide, Joint Meeting Parties (JMP) is a coalition of six major opposition parties: the Islamist Islah Party, the Yemeni Socialist Party, the Nasserite Unionist Popular Organization, the Arab Baath Party, the Union of Popular Forces, and the Haq Party.

It is chaired by Abdulwahab al-Anisi of the Islah Party. In December 2011, it took up half the seats in the interim cabinet under the GGC-brokered deal, including the position of prime minister. It has some 60 members in parliament.

JMP has been heavily involved in the nationwide protests against Saleh, and has been accused by GPC of involvement in staff protests at several state institutions – where JMP called for the ouster of institutional heads who are GPC members.

Najiba Mutahar, a political analyst at Taiz University, said attempts by some JMP parliamentarians to obstruct the amnesty law shows the JMP’s lack of support for it.

JMP, particularly Islah, has widespread support nationwide. It wants the current first-past-the-post system replaced by proportional representation, believing it to be more democratic.

The coalition is supported by “powerful and wealthy figures including Hamid al-Ahmar”, Ahmad al-Zawqari, a member of local NGO Yemen Election Monitoring Network (YEMN), told IRIN.

The “revolutionaries”

Despite the GCC deal, tens of thousands of young protesters calling themselves “revolutionaries” are still camping out in Sana’a and other main cities.

The “revolutionaries” who started the protest movement in February 2011, have long been wary of opposition compromises with the Saleh regime, a fact which may explain their reluctance to support the GCC-brokered deal.

They are opposed to immunity for Saleh and his aides, and are therefore unlikely to back any political group which supports the amnesty.

“Why give immunity to killers… who killed thousands of us… We will continue protesting until the killers are tried before our eyes,” Tawakkul Karman, a young protest leader and Nobel Prize laureate, told IRIN.

Observers fear the young protesters could try and disrupt the elections. “Young protesters may escalate their protests, leading to violence and hindering the elections since they think parliament betrayed them by approving the immunity law on 21 January,” said Sheikh Nassr al-Shahiri, leader of the Supreme Council of Central Lands, a pro-JMP tribal coalition. They have already staged protests in Sana’a, Taiz and Aden.

The Southern Movement (SM)

SM comprises tens of thousands of people demanding the secession of the south.

Led by Hassan Baoum, the movement is active in the southern governorates of Dhalea, Lahj, Aden and Abyan; and the eastern governorates of Shabwa, Hadhramaut and Mahrah. It is opposed to the GCC-deal and the February elections.

In a rally in the southern port city of Aden in early January, hundreds of SM members burnt their voting IDs in front of cameras, indicating that they would boycott the elections.

“No polling station will be allowed to open in our territory… No citizen will be allowed to participate in the vote,” Salah al-Shanfarah, an SM leader in Aden, told IRIN. “Any election will be illegitimate since our territory is being occupied by northerners.”

Some SM members are armed. On 13 January clashes caused seven deaths and 26 injuries. “Their calls for boycotting the elections may find listening ears in the southern streets where people suffer poverty, poor basic services and feel they are excluded from real partnership in power and resources,” said YEMN’s al-Zawqari.

Islamic militants

Ansar al-Sharia, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), is a loose affiliation of foreign Al-Qaeda fighters and local militants that has been increasingly confronting the Yemeni government in southern Yemen. Abyan Governorate is its main stronghold, but it is also active in the adjacent governorates of Shabwa, Beidha, Marib and al-Jawf.

Mostly from Yemen and Saudi Arabia, its militants have exploited the weak control of the central governorate over several parts of the country and gained more territory, recently expanding their operations to Radaa city in Beidha Governorate.

Sheikh Mohammed Bin Sabaa, from Abyan, told IRIN that Ansar al-Sharia are vowing not to allow the election management committees to enter the governorate. “They don’t recognize elections,” he said. “They see democracy as a Western concept introduced by the US.”

Ongoing military operations against the militants have made various areas of the south unsafe. The movement and expansion of Al-Qaeda and affiliated groups will negatively affect political progress and lead to security tensions, Ayesh Awas, a security researcher at the Saba Centre for Strategic Studies, told the Yemen Times. “It’s not reasonable to hold elections in the areas of conflict,” he said.

The Houthis

Led by Shia cleric Abdulmalik al-Houthi, this Shia rebel group is active in the northern governorates of Sa’dah, al-Jawf and Amran, as well as in some parts of Hajjah. It also has thousands of loyalists in Sana’a and other governorates.

They want more autonomy and ultimately the return of the pre-1962 Hashemite Imamate.

The Houthis are opposed to the GCC-brokered deal because of Saudi involvement: Saudi Arabia waged a war against them in 2009. They see democracy as a Western concept arbitrarily imposed on Yemen by the USA, but have supported anti-Saleh protests.

“In Islam, we have a caliphate, but not democracy which is an American concept,” said Sameeh al-Rijami, a leader of the movement.

Observers say polling may not take place in Sa’dah and neighboring areas due to insecurity. Currently, the Houthis are fighting Salafist Sunnis in some parts of Sa’dah, al-Jawf and Hajjah governorates.

Hashid Tribal Confederation

This Confederation of several tribes is loyal to powerful Sheikh Sadeq al-Ahmar, who has been involved in sporadic clashes with pro-government army units since May 2011.

The Confederation is believed to have tens of thousands of gunmen, mainly from Amran, Marib and Sana’a governorates. It has several hundred gunmen protecting al-Ahmar in the al-Hasaba area, north of Sana’a.

They have so far refused to leave Sana’a, as per the GPC-brokered deal, raising tension in the capital just weeks before the elections. “If Saleh wants immunity, he should leave Yemen,” al-Ahmar told UN envoy to Yemen Jamal Bin Omar on 12 January.

Defected army units

Some 25-30,000 soldiers are believed to have defected, and represent a serious source of tension which could affect the elections, according to observers.

These include the First Armored Division in the capital, and other divisions in the northwestern and eastern parts of the country which are loyal to Maj.-Gen Ali Mohsen Saleh, commander of the Northwestern Military Zone, who says he is in favor of the elections.

The GCC deal requires all troops to be confined to barracks before the elections, but Ali Mohsen Saleh has not complied, fearing his troops could be vulnerable to attack by Republican Guards.

Republican Guard (RG)

Led by Brig. Ahmad Ali Saleh, a son of President Saleh, the elite force of 23 divisions is based in Sana’a and other governorates including Dhamar, Ibb, Taiz, Beidha, Hudeidah and Hadhramaut.

RG is estimated to have some 40,000 soldiers controlling almost all strategic mountaintop positions overlooking Sana’a city.

Troops which have defected to Maj.-Gen Ali Mohsen Saleh are demanding that RG abandon such positions before they withdraw from Sana’a, a demand which has been rejected by RG commanders.

Sources:

http://www.arabic-military.com/t11420-topic

http://yemen-press.com/news3179.html

http://www.alahmar.net/

http://www.al-tagheer.com/news38651.html

http://www.barakish.net/news.aspx?cat=12⊂=11&id=24733

http://marebpress.taiz-press.net/

ay/eo/ha/cb

– Provided by Integrated Regional Information Networks.

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Washington, D.C., United States (AHN) – President Barack Obama has set off another round of accusations and denials this week with an interview he gave on Sunday about who should be blamed for the slow economy.

During a discussion about whether he had fulfilled his campaign promises to jumpstart the economy from its Bush-era doldrums, an NBC Today show interviewer asked him whether he should be re-elected based on his job performance.

“I deserve a second term but we’re not done,” Obama said.

His supporters mention that unemployment has dropped from the previous 9.1 percent rate in September to 8.3 percent in January.

Obama greeted the January jobs report by saying, “In January, American businesses added another 257,000 jobs. The unemployment rate came down, because more people found work. And altogether, we have added 3.7-million jobs over the last 23 months.”

In addition, the gross domestic product is increasingly moderately, compared with a decline in production during the worst of the recession.

The improvements can be found in the stock market, which has been making steady gains for nearly a year.

Major polling firms report that Obama’s approval rating is going up along with improvements in the economy.

However, his Republican opponents in the upcoming presidential election say he is overburdening taxpayers and businesses with new regulations and social programs. They also say he has failed to meet the goals he set early in his administration.

Among his goals was keeping the unemployment rate below 8 percent.

“This week he has been trying to take a bow for 8.3-percent unemployment,” said Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney. “Not so fast, Mr. President. This is the 36th straight month with unemployment above the red line your own administration drew.”

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said on NBC’s “Meet The Press” program, “Unemployment has dropped. Well, it has dropped. You know why? Because over 4 percent of the people who would be unemployed have quit looking for work. If we had the same participation rate we had a couple years ago, we would be at 12- or 13-percent unemployment.”

The criticisms continued this week by business leaders and top members of Congress during an economic forum sponsored by YG Network, a free enterprise advocacy group, at a Washington, D.C. hotel.

“We ought to take a thorough look at the things that are standing in the way,” said Rep. Eric Cantor (R-Va.).

He said he would introduce a bill to reduce the small business tax by 20 percent as an incentive for more people to start their own businesses.

“It is about sales growth, it is about growth and innovation,” Cantor said.

He accused Obama of trying to remove risk from the economy by imposing more financial and safety regulations on businesses that are driving up their costs. In addition, tough new banking regulations intended to prevent another recession are making it hard for businesses to get the credit they need for loans.

“Through risk comes innovation,” Cantor said.

Other concerns about government regulation came from Tom Stemberg, former chief executive officer of the office supply company Staples.

He said that if he was trying to start a company like Staples now, he could not get the credit he needed for a business loan.

“There’s no chance in the world it would meet the standards of today’s banks,” Stemberg said.

He said many of the bank regulations are unnecessary and duplicative, creating what he called “a $300 million bureaucracy” to regulate banks.

Steve Case, founder of America Online and now the chief executive officer of an investment firm, said he was concerned that government regulations made it difficult for businesses to hire more people.

“If you want to focus on the economy, you focus on jobs,” Case said.

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Ankara, Turkey David Rosenberg / The Med – The Arab Spring has been tough on Turkey. Its good friend, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, disappointed it with a violent crackdown on protestors. Relations with Iran have grown chillier, Ankara was forced to do an embarrassing about-face on the Libyan no-fly zone and Egypt’s Islamic leaders warned it against promoting the Turkish brand of Islam and democracy.

Back at home, economic growth is faltering and the country has been subject to withering criticism for allowing the courts to lock up so many journalists. The Kurds have grown restive.

But Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan can take some solace from the fact that in the Arab world his country is as popular as ever. A newly released poll finds that Arabs see Turkey as a champion of regional peace and role model for religion and democracy living side by side.

Conducted among 2,323 people in 16 Arab countries over the last three months of 2011 by the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV), the survey found that 78 percent approved of Turkey and its policies.

“Clearly Turkey is very much admired and so it has a degree of regional leadership and the ability to pay that role,” Jonathan Levack, program officer for foreign policy program at TESEV, told The Media Line. “But it has to be careful because public opinion is volatile and the region is volatile. You can’t easily translate this popularity into political influence.”

The survey comes as the Middle East and North Africa undergo their biggest upheaval in decades. Domestically, the countries that have thrown off autocratic rule are now undergoing a wrenching debate over the role of Islam and democracy while the long-standing dominance of the U.S. is perceived by many as being in retreat, with a host of powers looking to fill the vacuum.

Turkey’s approval rating puts it way ahead of other contender’s for regional leadership, most notably Saudi Arabia (64 percent) and Iran (45 percent), while China – a potentially emerging regional power – achieved a favorable rating among 65 percent of the respondents. The U.S. garnered only a 33 percent approval rating.

Turkey scored highest in countries where the Arab Spring has ended the rule of dictators and politics is in flux. In Libya, Turkey had a 93 percent approval rating even though Ankara was late in joining the no-fly zone campaign that was instrumental in ousting Muammar Al-Qaddafi. Turkey had a 91 percent rating in Tunisia and 86 percent rating in Egypt.

But in Syria, where Erdogan has been at the forefront of efforts to force Al-Assad to step down, Turkey’s approval rating plummeted. From 93 percent in TESEV’s 2010 survey, it fell to 44 percent last year.

Moreover, 61 percent of the Arab world views Turkey as a model for their own countries, compared with 22 percent who said it was not, according to the poll. Among those who approve of Turkey as a model, 32 percent cited its democracy, 25 percent its thriving economy and 23 percent its Muslim identity.

But among those who say they do not admire the Turkish model, its biggest drawback was its insufficient Muslim identity and its ties to the West, which the disapprovers believed to be too close. Turkey is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, although its efforts to join the European Union have so far failed.

In fact, the Turkish model has started to look a little tarnished. More than 100 journalists are now imprisoned for what human rights groups say are unfounded charges of terrorism. The latest arrests prompted a public tussle between Erdogan and the American author Paul Auster, who announced last month that he would not visit Turkey due to the clampdown on freedom of speech.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund is forecasting just 0.4 percent economic growth for Turkey this year, down from 8.3 percent in 2011.

This was the third annual survey of Arab attitudes TESEV has conducted as Turkey has emerged from decades of regional non-involvement to become an increasingly important political and economic player.

“Throughout the three surveys, we found Turkey was welcomed as an actor in the region by the people of the region…. that favorable option is consistent, or structural. It hasn’t been affected by the Arab Spring or by Turkey’s stance toward Libya,” said Levack.

Turks who participated in a Doha Debates roundtable at Bogazici University in Istanbul last month were less convinced of their country’s model. By a margin of 59 percent to 41 percent they approved a resolution: “This House believes Turkey is a bad model for the new Arab states.”

Ece Temelkuran, a Turkish journalist, told the audience that her country’s experience could not be duplicated in the Arab world. “Turkey has been under a state for modernism and secularism for about 80 years, which has not been experienced anywhere in the Arab world in the same manner,” she said.

But she was also critical of Turkey’s democracy, saying it was responsible for jailing journalists and criticized the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) for substituting military dominance over politics with a new kind of authoritarianism.

Defending the model, Sinan Ulgen, director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (Edam), said Turkey’s political development is a work in progress, which makes it relevant to the Arab world and a more useful mentor than Europe or America.

“The Arab people in terms of their cultural affinity have an association with Turkey. They relate to what’s going on in Turkey,” he told the Doha Debates audience. “They relate to what’s going on in Turkish society. And I think the best way to prove this argument is just to tell you that the wild success of the Turkish soap operas across the Arab world.”

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New York, NY, United States (AHN) – Stocks opened sharply higher Friday after the Labor Department reported the U.S. economy created jobs at the fastest pace in nine months.

Shortly after the opening bell on Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 113 points, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 12 points and the NASDAQ jumped 28 points.

Oil was up 64 cents to $97.13, and gold was lower by $7, last trading at $1,752.50 a troy ounce.

The Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls jumped by 243,000 in January, the most since April, and far exceeding economists’ expectations of a gain of just 150,000.

The strong jobs reports put the unemployment rate to a near three-year low of 8.3 percent and buoyed investor sentiment.

Market watchers will also be watching the big game Sunday. For the past 36 of 45 Super Bowls, the stock market has gone up after a win by an original National Football League team, one that traces its roots to before the merger with the American Football League, and gone down when the AFL (or newer team) is victorious.

So, Wall Street wants the Giants to win the Super Bowl.

The measure has an 80 percent accuracy rate based on the Dow Jones Industrial Averages’ annual performance.

There is not any science to it, but it is still as reliable as it gets for stock forecasting.

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Los Angeles, CA, United States (AHN) – Take a picture; it lasts longer.

Eastman Kodak, currently in bankruptcy and attempting to shore up its assets and refinance, wants its legendary name off the Hollywood landmark that has been home to the Academy Awards show for the last decade.

With just a few week before the star-studded and celebrated 84th Academy Awards broadcast, Kodak is seeking bankruptcy permission to exit the $75 million, 20-year sponsorship agreement it signed in 2000.

Kodak maintains that the bragging rights to have its name on the iconic Hollywood Theater simply isn’t worth it.

Built for $94 million in the Hollywood & Highland retail and entertainment complex, the Kodak Theater opened in November 2011.

The 3,332 seat theater hosted its first Academy Awards in March 2002, the same year Halle Berry made history when she became the first African-American to win the Best Actress Award.

On Jan. 19, Kodak filed for Chapter 11. It now attempts to close another chapter in its illustrious history as it struggles to stay present in the every changing business picture and ailing economy.

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Singapore, Singapore (AHN) – Singapore and Myanmar on Monday signed a bilateral, economic and trade agreement.

Under the Singapore-Myanmar Technical Cooperation Program pact, Singapore will open itself to foreign investment as well as offer training courses on trade, tourism development and central banking to the Southeast Asian nation.

The agreement was signed during Myanmarese President U Thein Sein’s first visit to Singapore after becoming president last year.

Myanmar had been a secretive military regime in the last decade, but post-2010 elections, situations changed in the country as government released several political prisoners and even legalized the pro-democracy leader Suu Kyi’s National League of Democracy party. This prompted Washington to revive full diplomatic ties with it. Even the EU decided to partly lift sanctions on Myanmar.

Both the U.S. and the EU have promised to further ease sanctions, if they see free and fair parliamentary by-elections in April this year.

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New York, NY, United States (AHN) – Wall Street opened lower Friday after a report showed that the U.S. economy expanded less than forecast..

Just after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was lower by 33 points, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index was flat and the NASDAQ was up by about 6 points.

Weighing on stocks was a report that showed the U.S. economy expanded at 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, less than the 3 percent that had been projected.

In Europe the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.7 percent as investors await word on developments on the region’s sovereign debt crisis. European Union Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said authorities are “very close” to reaching an agreement on private-sector involvement in a Greek debt swap.

Despite those words of optimism, the dismal growth of GDP in the U.S. was keeping investors cautious. The health and growth of the U.S. economy is a very important and leading indicator of economic growth worldwide. As analysts like to say, “when the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold.”

In corporate news, Ford fell after reporting numbers that missed estimates. Starbucks shares slipped despite reporting better than expected numbers, and Juniper Networks plunged after the second biggest maker of computer networking equipment forecast sales and profits that missed estimates.

In commodities, oil was unchanged at $$99.60 a barrel, gold rose $4.70 to $1,725 a troy ounce and silver was up a few pennies at $33.63.

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Damascus, Syria David Rosenberg (The Medi – As the Arab League agreed to go to the United Nations Security Council early this week with a resolution calling for Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to step down, Russia was reportedly doing a major arms deal with the beleaguered regime.

The $550 million agreement to sell 36 Yak-130 combat aircraft will not do anything to tip the balance in favor of the Al-Assad regime, which has been engaged in a 10-month conflict with anti-government opposition. But Russia is almost certainly providing arms Damascus needs to hold back the rebels as well as mounting a diplomatic defense of its friend at the U.N.

In a rare glimpse into the Russia-Syria arms trade, a ship loaded with ammunition from Russia was briefly detained in Cyprus earlier this month before continuing its journey unmolested to the Syrian port of Tartus. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has vowed that Russia will veto any sanctions as “unfair and counterproductive.”

“Syria is an important customer for the Russian military industry and the industry is quite keen to maintain the relationship,” Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Moscow based foreign policy journal Russia in Global Affairs, told The Media Line. “Syria is one of the few remaining customers in the region and it hosts the only military base – a small one but still a base – that Russia still has outside its own borders.”

As the West – now joined by the Arab League – presses the Syrian president ever harder, Russia has emerged as his most important ally. Iran also backs the Damascus regime, but Tehran itself faces growing diplomatic isolation over its nuclear program and doesn’t wield a Security Council veto. China is opposed to Syrian sanctions, too, but analysts say it is likely to follow whatever line Moscow adopts.

Russia’s warm ties with Syria, and more exactly the Al-Assad family regime that has ruled the country four decades, starts with arms sales but it goes much deeper.

In the final two decades of the Cold War era, when the Soviet Union was a superpower competing for global influence with the U.S., Syria was its staunchest ally in the Middle East. Bashar Al-Assad’s father and predecessor Hafez armed his troops with Soviet weapons and advanced Moscow’s interests in the region.

With the collapse of communism and with Syria’s deteriorating economy, the relationship is not what it once was. But Russia maintains a naval base at Tartus and the two governments share a distrust of the West and its motives.

Indeed, the view from Moscow of what is happening in Syria is very different than the one in Washington or Brussels. Where the West sees events in Syria as a popular uprising against a repressive regime, Russia shares Damascus’ take, which sees the rebellion as conspiracy by the Gulf countries to bring down an ally of their foe Iran.

“Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others see this as an opportunity, as a chance to push back Iranian influence,” Lukyanov said. “From Russia’s point of view, it’s part of a geopolitical struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia, where Syria is just a card.”

For policymakers in Moscow, the situation in Syria looks remarkably similar to the one in Libya last year, where another long-time friend, Muamar Al-Qaddafi, faced what was seen in the West as a popular rebellion against autocracy. Russia reluctantly agreed not to veto a U.N. decision to impose a no-fly zone over the country.

The resolution, as Russia’s leaders understood it, was to prevent Al-Qaddafi from killing civilians with aerial firepower. But the NATO forces that largely enforced the decision, Russians say, used it to level the playing field in the Libyan civil war to Al-Qaddafi’s disadvantage. Moscow lost a friend and customer for its arms and is now out of favor with the successor National Transitional Council.

Zvi Magen, a former Israeli ambassador to Russia, said Russia’s Syria policy is driven by memories of its Cold War rivalry with the U.S.

“There’s an element of business in the arms deals, but it’s mainly a political move to show the flag and to show support for Syria. It’s mainly a function of Russian relations with America than with the Syrian regime,” Magen told The Media Line.

For that reason – and because Moscow realizes that Al-Assad’s days are numbered – it may be prepared to make a deal with the U.S. over Syria, he added.

Nevertheless, analysts agree that the importance of the arms trade as a factor in Moscow’s calculations should not be overlooked. In an economy with few other industrial exports, Russia’s military industry is an important earner of foreign exchange and a powerful domestic political force.

The Voice of Russia radio’s website said in December without citing a source that Russian arms exports reached $11 billion last year, a three-fold increase from 2000. While the country’s biggest customers are India and China, the Middle East had been a growing market until the Arab Spring eliminated Al-Qaddafi and sanctions on Iran removed another customer. Syria alone, according to some estimates, accounted for 7 percent of all Russian arms sales in 2010.

A U.S. government study in 2009 estimated Russia’s share of the Middle East arms market grew to more than 15 percent in the 2005-2008 period, five percentage points more than in 2001-2004 as it offered more creative financing and payment options, counter-trade, offsets, debt-swapping, and, in some cases, licensing production locally.

Russia’s Interfax news agency reported in early December that Russia delivered $300 million of Yakhont anti-ship cruise missiles to Syria.

With numbers like that, it is no wonder that Sergey Chemezov, the head of the state arms export company Rosoboronexport, made clear he had no intention of halting business with Syria.

“There are no sanctions whatsoever regarding Syria,” he told Interfax on Wednesday. “If international sanctions are imposed by the U.N. Security Council, everything will change. And if there are no sanctions, why should we refuse to cooperate with this country? This is business after all.”

Nevertheless, Magen said, Russia is careful not to sell Damascus weapons like S-300 surface-to-air missiles that could alter the regional balance of power.

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Washington, DC, United States (KaiserHealth) – In his State of the Union speech, President Barack Obama made just one explicit mention of the 2010 health law. Here is a transcript of the few parts of his speech that mentioned health care issues:

Innovation also demands basic research. Today, the discoveries taking place in our federally-financed labs and universities could lead to new treatments that kill cancer cells but leave healthy ones untouched. …

I will not go back to the days when health insurance companies had unchecked power to cancel your policy, deny your coverage, or charge women differently than men. …

Do we want to keep these tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans? Or do we want to keep our investments in everything else – like education and medical research; a strong military and care for our veterans? Because if we’re serious about paying down our debt, we can’t do both.

The American people know what the right choice is. So do I. As I told the Speaker this summer, I’m prepared to make more reforms that rein in the long term costs of Medicare and Medicaid, and strengthen Social Security, so long as those programs remain a guarantee of security for seniors. …

I recognize that people watching tonight have differing views about taxes and debt; energy and health care. But no matter what party they belong to, I bet most Americans are thinking the same thing right about now: Nothing will get done this year, or next year, or maybe even the year after that, because Washington is broken. …

I’m a Democrat. But I believe what Republican Abraham Lincoln believed: That government should do for people only what they cannot do better by themselves, and no more. That’s … That’s why we’re getting rid of regulations that don’t work. That’s why our health care law relies on a reformed private market, not a government program. …

Above all, our freedom endures because of the men and women in uniform who defend it. As they come home, we must serve them as well as they served us. That includes giving them the care and benefits they have earned – which is why we’ve increased annual VA spending every year I’ve been president.

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Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels delivered the Republican response. Here are excerpts of his remarks:

[We] must unite to save the safety net. Medicare and Social Security have served us well, and that must continue. But after half and three quarters of a century respectively, it’s not surprising that they need some repairs. We can preserve them unchanged and untouched for those now in or near retirement, but we must fashion a new, affordable safety net so future Americans are protected, too.

Decades ago, for instance, we could afford to send millionaires pension checks and pay medical bills for even the wealthiest among us. Now, we can’t, so the dollars we have should be devoted to those who need them most.

The mortal enemies of Social Security and Medicare are those who, in contempt of the plain arithmetic, continue to mislead Americans that we should change nothing. Listening to them much longer will mean that these proud programs implode, and take the American economy with them. …

It’s not fair and it’s not true for the President to attack Republicans in Congress as obstacles on these questions. They and they alone have passed bills to reduce borrowing, reform entitlements, and encourage new job creation, only to be shot down time and time again by the President and his Democratic Senate allies.

This year, it falls to Republicans to level with our fellow citizens about this reality: if we fail to act to grow the private sector and save the safety net, nothing else will matter much. …

In word and deed, the President and his allies tell us that we just cannot handle ourselves in this complex, perilous world without their benevolent protection. Left to ourselves, we might pick the wrong health insurance, the wrong mortgage, the wrong school for our kids; why, unless they stop us, we might pick the wrong light bulb!

– Provided by Kaiser Health News.

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